For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Projected against actual, per market and per week — with the naive baseline beside every number, so a miss can be read as skill rather than as a size.
Every number here is projected minus actual: the weekly rows of nfl_player_projections against nfl_stats_player_week, joined player by player through the GSIS id. It grades the projection against the BOX SCORE, not against the book — “our number beat the market” needs a per-player-week join to odds_history and is not claimed on this page.
Each market only counts projections above a volume floor, because most rows in this table are structurally zero. Graded without a floor, 2025 week-3 passing yards comes out accurate to 4.4 yards — which is three hundred non-quarterbacks projected for nothing and getting nothing, not a passing model. Above the floor the same week is off by 57.7.
Regraded every night · read Fri, Sep 11, 7:10 AM EDT, within the hour.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 57.9 yards across 1090 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 17.1% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 30 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.93 touchdowns across 1090 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 6.5% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 30 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.69 interceptions across 1092 graded projections, and runs 0.08 interceptions HIGH on average — 4.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 29 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing yards: off by 23.6 yards across 2139 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 6.7% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 71 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.54 touchdowns across 1759, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 57 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.64 catches across 4585 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 7.6% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 196 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 23.5 yards across 4375 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 6.5% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 236 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.46 touchdowns across 3339 — 3.5% WORSE than the player's own season average. Do not price this market off this source.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 143 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
19,469 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 3 · 3 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 3 · 3 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Passing yards: 2 graded projections so far, off by 122.5 yards on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 31 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Passing touchdowns: 2 graded projections so far, off by 1.00 touchdowns on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 31 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Interceptions thrown: 2 graded projections so far, off by 1.55 interceptions on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 31 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing yards: 5 graded projections so far, off by 8.1 yards on average. 20 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 68 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing touchdowns: 5 graded projections so far, off by 0.32 touchdowns on average. 20 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 69 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receptions: 8 graded projections so far, off by 1.86 catches on average. 17 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 154 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receiving yards: 7 graded projections so far, off by 27.2 yards on average. 18 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 155 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receiving touchdowns: 7 graded projections so far, off by 0.29 touchdowns on average. 18 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 146 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
38 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 3 · 3 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 3 · 3 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Passing yards: 2 graded projections so far, off by 123.5 yards on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 28 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Passing touchdowns: 2 graded projections so far, off by 0.89 touchdowns on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 32 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Interceptions thrown: 2 graded projections so far, off by 1.38 interceptions on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 33 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing yards: 3 graded projections so far, off by 17.1 yards on average. 22 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 68 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing touchdowns: 3 graded projections so far, off by 0.32 touchdowns on average. 22 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 56 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receptions: 8 graded projections so far, off by 1.47 catches on average. 17 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 126 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receiving yards: 9 graded projections so far, off by 22.8 yards on average. 16 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 127 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receiving touchdowns: 6 graded projections so far, off by 0.32 touchdowns on average. 19 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 73 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
35 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 3 · 3 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 3 · 3 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Passing yards: 2 graded projections so far, off by 137.1 yards on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 30 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Passing touchdowns: 2 graded projections so far, off by 0.79 touchdowns on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 30 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Interceptions thrown: 2 graded projections so far, off by 1.53 interceptions on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 30 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing yards: 5 graded projections so far, off by 10.6 yards on average. 20 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 62 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing touchdowns: 3 graded projections so far, off by 0.44 touchdowns on average. 22 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 54 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receptions: 5 graded projections so far, off by 0.93 catches on average. 20 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 107 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receiving yards: 5 graded projections so far, off by 16.2 yards on average. 20 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 104 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receiving touchdowns: 2 graded projections so far, off by 0.23 touchdowns on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 58 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
26 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 3 · 3 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 2 · 2 rows had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 0 qualified of 1 · 1 row had too few to compute a rate on — shown as a dash, never a bar
Passing yards: 2 graded projections so far, off by 154.0 yards on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 30 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Passing touchdowns: 2 graded projections so far, off by 1.10 touchdowns on average. 23 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 30 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Interceptions thrown: 1 graded projection so far, off by 2.50 interceptions on average. 24 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 24 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing yards: 7 graded projections so far, off by 41.1 yards on average. 18 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 101 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Rushing touchdowns: 6 graded projections so far, off by 0.42 touchdowns on average. 19 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 93 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receptions: 3 graded projections so far, off by 1.67 catches on average. 22 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 41 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
Receiving yards: 1 graded projection so far, off by 20.0 yards on average. 24 more and this row gets a verdict.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 15 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Below 25 graded projections this page prints the numbers and withholds the verdict — the same floor it uses everywhere it grades a hit rate.
22 graded projections across 7 markets for this source.
18 weeks across 2024, 2025, 2026, from 15082 weekly projection rows and 5 sources.
Regraded every night · read Fri, Sep 11, 7:10 AM EDT, within the hour.
