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Projected against actual, per market and per week — with the naive baseline beside every number, so a miss can be read as skill rather than as a size.
Every number here is projected minus actual: each week's projection against that week's box score, joined player by player. It grades the projection against the BOX SCORE, not against the book — “our number beat the market” needs a per-player-week join to odds_history and is not claimed on this page.
Each market only counts projections above a volume floor, because most rows in this table are structurally zero. Graded without a floor, 2025 week-3 passing yards comes out accurate to 4.4 yards — which is three hundred non-quarterbacks projected for nothing and getting nothing, not a passing model. Above the floor the same week is off by 57.7.
Regraded every night · read Wed, Oct 7, 9:35 PM EDT, within the hour.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 58.2 yards across 1216 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 17.6% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 37 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.93 touchdowns across 1216 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 7.7% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 37 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.69 interceptions across 1216 graded projections, and runs 0.07 interceptions HIGH on average — 4.1% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 37 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing yards: off by 23.4 yards across 2383 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 7.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 84 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.54 touchdowns across 1972, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 68 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.65 catches across 5108 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 8.6% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 225 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 23.7 yards across 4867 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 7.5% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 269 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.46 touchdowns across 3692 — 3.3% WORSE than the player's own season average. Do not price this market off this source.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 165 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
21,670 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 64.1 yards across 127 graded projections, and runs 12.8 yards LOW on average — 18.8% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 35 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.92 touchdowns across 127 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 15.5% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 36 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.65 interceptions across 126 — 5.5% WORSE than the player's own season average. Do not price this market off this source.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 35 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing yards: off by 20.9 yards across 275 graded projections, and runs 2.8 yards HIGH on average — 16.4% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 75 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.48 touchdowns across 270 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 2.8% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 77 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.77 catches across 571 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 15.0% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 190 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 24.9 yards across 578 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 14.0% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 214 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.44 touchdowns across 540, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 190 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
2,614 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 61.9 yards across 128 graded projections, and runs 9.0 yards HIGH on average — 21.6% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 3 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.93 touchdowns across 128 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 15.4% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 3 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.63 interceptions across 106 — 3.3% WORSE than the player's own season average. Do not price this market off this source.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 2 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing yards: off by 23.0 yards across 235 graded projections, and runs 6.2 yards HIGH on average — 11.0% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 5 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.53 touchdowns across 195, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 4 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.80 catches across 486 graded projections, and runs 0.36 catches HIGH on average — 16.2% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 19 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 27.1 yards across 398 graded projections, and runs 5.4 yards HIGH on average — 14.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 13 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.47 touchdowns across 322 graded projections, and runs 0.05 touchdowns HIGH on average — 5.1% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 10 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
1,998 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 66.1 yards across 104 graded projections, and runs 15.4 yards LOW on average — 12.4% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 43 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.92 touchdowns across 105 graded projections, and runs 0.10 touchdowns LOW on average — 15.7% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 62 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.62 interceptions across 104 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 4.5% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 64 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing yards: off by 25.0 yards across 224 graded projections, and runs 2.8 yards HIGH on average — 2.8% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 107 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.55 touchdowns across 195 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 2.5% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 87 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.85 catches across 474 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 13.9% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 205 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 26.5 yards across 461 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 13.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 223 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.47 touchdowns across 309 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 7.9% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 124 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
1,976 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 60.6 yards across 128 graded projections, and runs 9.4 yards HIGH on average — 23.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 36 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.90 touchdowns across 127 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 18.1% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 36 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.64 interceptions across 128, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 36 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing yards: off by 22.5 yards across 260 graded projections, and runs 4.2 yards HIGH on average — 11.1% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 77 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.53 touchdowns across 220, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 55 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.81 catches across 439 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 18.9% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 136 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 24.8 yards across 417 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 19.2% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 136 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.47 touchdowns across 242, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 79 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
1,961 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 58.2 yards across 123 graded projections, and runs 7.9 yards LOW on average — 26.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 14 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.88 touchdowns across 123 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 19.2% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 14 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.64 interceptions across 123, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 3 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing yards: off by 22.3 yards across 186 graded projections, and runs 3.4 yards LOW on average — 21.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest rushing rung a book posts; under it the market does not exist. 7 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.54 touchdowns across 207 — 6.2% WORSE than the player's own season average. Do not price this market off this source.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 5 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.81 catches across 407 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 18.1% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 17 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 26.2 yards across 350 graded projections, and runs 5.1 yards LOW on average — 19.9% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 17 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.49 touchdowns across 311, which is the same as simply knowing the player's season average. On this market the projection is not adding anything a bettor could not do by hand.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 12 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
1,830 graded projections across 8 markets for this source.
18 weeks across 2024, 2025, 2026, from 23102 weekly projection rows and 6 sources.
Regraded every night · read Wed, Oct 7, 9:35 PM EDT, within the hour.
