For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Still drawing after 10 seconds. Nothing you had open is lost.
Where our projection beats simply knowing a player's season average, market by market.
Every number here is projected minus actual: each week's projection against that week's box score, joined player by player, and graded against simply knowing the player's own season average over the same rows.
Each market counts only projections above a volume floor, because most rows are structurally zero — a backup projected for nothing and getting nothing is not a forecast.
Regraded every night · read Mon, Oct 26, 8:13 AM EDT, within the hour.
Every market below pooled, each weighted by its graded projections. The baseline is the player’s own season-to-date average over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 2 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Short of the rule is better — the rule is the player's own season average, over the same rows.
Thin sample: 1 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Passing yards: off by 64.7 yards across 173 graded projections, and runs 12.8 yards LOW on average — 5.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 100 yards or more. A projection under 100 yards is a backup or a non-quarterback; no book posts the market there. 22 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Passing touchdowns: off by 0.87 touchdowns across 176 graded projections, and runs 0.10 touchdowns LOW on average — 13.9% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.5 touchdowns or more. Books hang passing-TD lines at 0.5 and up, so that is where the market starts. 39 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Interceptions thrown: off by 0.62 interceptions across 175 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 7.5% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.25 interceptions or more. Below a quarter of an interception the projection is describing a player who will not attempt a pass. 43 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Rushing touchdowns: off by 0.55 touchdowns across 298 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 4.3% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. An anytime-TD price exists well below half a touchdown, so the floor is looser than the yardage markets. 65 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receptions: off by 1.80 catches across 792 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 9.2% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 2 catches or more. The shallowest receptions rung on the board is 1.5, so a 2-catch projection is the first one a bettor meets. 108 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving yards: off by 26.1 yards across 778 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 9.1% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 20 yards or more. 20 yards is the shallowest receiving rung a book posts. 129 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
Receiving touchdowns: off by 0.46 touchdowns across 526 graded projections, with no systematic lean either way — 5.9% better than simply knowing the player's season average.
Counts projections of 0.2 touchdowns or more. Same anytime-TD reasoning as the rushing market. 59 more cleared that floor and matched no box row — a player who did not appear, which is an absence rather than a miss.
2,918 graded projections across 7 markets for this source.
18 weeks across 2024, 2025, 2026, from 3,094 of our weekly projection rows. A market prints here once at least 25of its projections are graded and they beat the player’s own average.
Regraded every night · read Mon, Oct 26, 8:13 AM EDT, within the hour.