2026 Week 15 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Scheduled
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs — 2026 Week 15. Kickoff Mon, Dec 21, 2026.
No spread, no total and no moneyline are on the schedule row for this game yet. Lines are typically posted a few weeks out and the row fills when they are — nothing is estimated here in the meantime.
The kickoff ledger
Both clubs over the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season
Chiefs leads the widest measured gap here: drives that scored, 37.0% against 47.3%, a 10.3-point difference.
Pass rate over expected: Patriots called it almost exactly to script; Chiefs passed 3.0 points more than the script asked.
The market read
No line has been posted
The schedule row for this game carries no spread, no total and no moneyline yet. Lines for a regular-season game are typically posted a few weeks out and the row fills when they are. Nothing is estimated here in the meantime — a made-up number on a preview is the one thing a preview must never do.
the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season · offense against defense, ranked in both directions
Where these two disagree
The widest disagreement on this board is staying on schedule, with the Chiefs holding the ball. The Chiefs offence ranked 3 of 32 among offenses at keeping first and second down ahead of the chains; the Patriots defence ranked 22 of 32 among defenses at knocking an offense off schedule. That is 61 percentile points, a mismatch, and it runs the Chiefs’ way.
When the Patriots have the ball
Drake Mayeagainst
the Chiefs
projected starter · chart of Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Sacks on the dropback
NE+52The only line on this board whose two sides are different verbs: the offense's number is sacks taken and it wants it low, the defense's is sacks made and it wants it high. The denominator is dropbacks, not pass attempts, because a sack is a failed dropback and dividing by completed attempts would flatter the worst protections in football.
Patriots offense
5.1%
11 of 32 · 257 dropbacks
Chiefs defense
4.0%
27 of 32 · 202 dropbacks
Week to week Patriots's offense held its middle half of weeks between 2.5% and 7.6% over 7 weeks — 0.9 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself.
Staying on schedule
KC+39Patriots offense
44.4%
15 of 32 · 333 early downs
Chiefs defense
37.5%
3 of 32 · 232 early downs
Expected points a play
KC+28Patriots offense
+0.056
10 of 30 · 429 plays
Chiefs defense
−0.102
2 of 30 · 315 plays
Explosive plays, 20 yards or more
KC+21Patriots offense
6.3%
11 of 30 · 429 plays
Chiefs defense
4.1%
5 of 30 · 315 plays
Third downs converted
KC+1Patriots offense
42.9%
10 of 30 · 84 third downs
Chiefs defense
37.1%
10 of 31 · 70 third downs
When the Chiefs have the ball
Patrick Mahomesagainst
the Patriots
projected starter · chart of Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Staying on schedule
KC+61Share of first and second downs that gained enough to keep the offense ahead of the chains. Third down is downstream of this, which is why a team can convert well and still stall: it is the unit that never faces third-and-nine that wins the afternoon. This has the biggest weekly sample of the five, so its week-to-week reading is the one to trust most.
Chiefs offense
49.6%
3 of 32 · 236 early downs
Patriots defense
44.6%
22 of 32 · 316 early downs
Week to week Patriots's defense held its own between 41.8% and 45.6% — 0.4 times the league's whole season spread, tighter than the league itself — a habit rather than an average of different afternoons.
Expected points a play
KC+48Chiefs offense
+0.155
5 of 30 · 304 plays
Patriots defense
+0.020
19 of 30 · 409 plays
Explosive plays, 20 yards or more
KC+45Chiefs offense
7.6%
2 of 30 · 304 plays
Patriots defense
5.6%
15 of 30 · 409 plays
Sacks on the dropback
KC+35Chiefs offense
3.4%
3 of 32 · 175 dropbacks
Patriots defense
6.7%
14 of 32 · 252 dropbacks
Third downs converted
no edge — unrankedChiefs offense
—
Fewer than 60 third downs on the basis season — too thin to rank.
Patriots defense
36.1%
9 of 31 · 83 third downs
Note
the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Two identities, on the league scale
This season
Every rate below is drawn from the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season, and it moves as each game's play-by-play lands.
Pass rate over expected
The Over Expected Room →How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
Patriots
-0.0
10 of 32 · 428 plays
Chiefs
+3.0
6 of 32 · 303 plays
Fourth downs, went for it
The Fourth Down Room →Share of fourth downs on which the offense ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
Patriots
25.6%
6 of 32 · 43 fourth downs
Chiefs
24.2%
7 of 32 · 33 fourth downs
Blitz sent on defense
The Tendency Room →Share of charted dropbacks this defense sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
Patriots
38.9%
6 of 32 · 252 charted dropbacks
Chiefs
26.7%
22 of 32 · 202 charted dropbacks
Drives that scored
The Drive Room →Share of this offense's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
Patriots
37.0%
18 of 32 · 73 possessions
Chiefs
47.3%
5 of 32 · 55 possessions
Drives allowed to score
The Drive Room →Share of opponent possessions this defense let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defense in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
Patriots
37.3%
13 of 32 · 75 possessions defended
Chiefs
34.0%
5 of 32 · 53 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Who is expected on the field
Patriots
as of Sun, Oct 25, 2026Offense
- FBReggie Gilliam
- RBRhamondre Stevenson
- TEHunter Henry
- QBDrake Maye
- WRA.J. Brown
- LTWill Campbell
- LGWalter Rouse
- CJared Wilson
- RGBen Brown
- RTMorgan Moses
Defense
- RCBChristian Gonzalez
- NBMarcus Jones
- LDEChristian Barmore
- NTCory Durden
- RDEMilton Williams
- WLBElijah Ponder
- LILBChristian Elliss
- RILBRobert Spillane
- SLBDre'Mont Jones
- LCBCarlton Davis III
- SSCraig Woodson
- FSKevin Byard
Special teams
- LSJulian Ashby
- KRKyle Williams
- HMitch Wishnowsky
- PKAndy Borregales
Chiefs
as of Sun, Oct 25, 2026Offense
- FBBen VanSumeren
- RBKenneth Walker III
- TETravis Kelce
- QBPatrick Mahomes
- WRRashee Rice
- LTKahlil Benson
- LGKingsley Suamataia
- CCreed Humphrey
- RGTrey Smith
- RTJaylon Moore
Defense
- RCBMansoor Delane
- NBL'Jarius Sneed
- LDEGeorge Karlaftis
- LDTChris Jones
- RDTKhyiris Tonga
- RDEFelix Anudike-Uzomah
- WLBDrue Tranquill
- MLBNick Bolton
- SLBJeffrey Bassa
- LCBNohl Williams
- SSChamarri Conner
- FSAlohi Gilman
Special teams
- LSJames Winchester
- KRNikko Remigio
- HMatt Araiza
- PKHarrison Butker
Note
2026 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
The usage each side was carrying
Patriots
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBDrake Maye | 7 | 97.3% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 5 | 19.8 |
| TEHunter Henry | 7 | 73.9% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 5 | 9.7 |
| WRRomeo Doubs | 5 | 68.6% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 5 | 9.4 |
| WRMack Hollins | 4 | 64.5% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 4 | 9.0 |
| RBRhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 62.7% | 11.5% | 37.7% | 10 | 12.4 |
| WRDeMario Douglas | 7 | 55.3% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 4 | 9.2 |
| TEEli Raridon | 6 | 50.0% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 5 | 6.8 |
| WREfton Chism III | 6 | 48.2% | 8.4% | 0.6% | 2 | 4.7 |
Chiefs
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBPatrick Mahomes | 5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 11.7% | 5 | 18.8 |
| WRXavier Worthy | 5 | 81.0% | 19.7% | 0.0% | 4 | 9.5 |
| TETravis Kelce | 5 | 76.8% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 3 | 12.4 |
| RBKenneth Walker III | 5 | 74.4% | 15.0% | 73.1% | 33 | 27.6 |
| TENoah Gray | 5 | 60.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 2 | 4.1 |
| WRTyquan Thornton | 4 | 59.0% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 2 | 11.2 |
| WRJalen Royals | 4 | 42.8% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 2 | 3.8 |
| RBEmmett Johnson | 5 | 27.6% | 5.4% | 13.1% | 3 | 4.5 |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
The last 6 meetings
- Sun, Dec 17, 2023Week 15Chiefs 27 at Patriots 17KC by 10
- Mon, Oct 5, 2020Week 4Patriots 10 at Chiefs 26KC by 16
- Sun, Dec 8, 2019Week 14Chiefs 23 at Patriots 16KC by 7
- Sun, Jan 20, 2019Conference ChampionshipPatriots 37 at Chiefs 31NE by 6
- Sun, Oct 14, 2018Week 6Chiefs 40 at Patriots 43NE by 3
- Thu, Sep 7, 2017Week 1Chiefs 42 at Patriots 27KC by 15
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Mon, Dec 21, 2026.
Take it with you
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_15_NE_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Not observed yet — the reading is taken at kickoff.
- Referee
- Crew not assigned yet.
- Rest
- Patriots 11 days · Chiefs 8 days
- Coaches
- Mike Vrabel vs Andy Reid