2026 Week 16 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Scheduled
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs — 2026 Week 16. Kickoff Sun, Dec 27, 2026.
No spread, no total and no moneyline are on the schedule row for this game yet. Lines are typically posted a few weeks out and the row fills when they are — nothing is estimated here in the meantime.
The kickoff ledger
Both clubs over the 2025 regular season
49ers leads the widest measured gap here: drives that scored, 47.6% against 42.0%, a 5.6-point difference.
Pass rate over expected: 49ers ran 0.9 points more than the script asked; Chiefs passed 3.9 points more than the script asked.
The market read
No line has been posted
The schedule row for this game carries no spread, no total and no moneyline yet. Lines for a regular-season game are typically posted a few weeks out and the row fills when they are. Nothing is estimated here in the meantime — a made-up number on a preview is the one thing a preview must never do.
the 2025 regular season · offence against defence, ranked in both directions
Where these two disagree
The widest disagreement on this board is getting off the field on third down, with the 49ers holding the ball. The 49ers offence ranked 1 of 32 among offences at turning third down into a first down; the Chiefs defence ranked 28 of 32 among defences at getting off the field on third down. That is 87 percentile points, a mismatch, and it runs the 49ers’ way.
When the 49ers have the ball
Brock Purdyagainst
the Chiefs
projected starter · chart of Wed, Sep 9, 2026
Third downs converted
SF+87Share of third downs that produced a first down. A conversion is read off the first-down flags rather than off the yardage, so a defensive holding that moves the sticks counts as the conversion it actually was — the yardage test would have filed it as a failure.
49ers offence
50.7%
1 of 32 · 209 third downs
Chiefs defence
44.1%
28 of 32 · 222 third downs
Week to week 49ers's offence held its middle half of weeks between 37.5% and 61.5% over 17 weeks — 2.1 times the league's whole season spread — the season figure is a mean of afternoons that did not resemble each other. Chiefs's defence held its own between 35.7% and 58.3% — 2.4 times the league's whole season spread — the season figure is a mean of afternoons that did not resemble each other.
Explosive plays, 20 yards or more
KC+5249ers offence
5.2%
25 of 32 · 1,065 plays
Chiefs defence
5.1%
9 of 32 · 978 plays
Sacks on the dropback
SF+4849ers offence
4.3%
4 of 32 · 629 dropbacks
Chiefs defence
6.0%
19 of 32 · 583 dropbacks
Staying on schedule
SF+3549ers offence
46.9%
4 of 32 · 829 early downs
Chiefs defence
42.8%
15 of 32 · 732 early downs
Expected points a play
SF+1949ers offence
+0.088
6 of 32 · 1,065 plays
Chiefs defence
−0.019
12 of 32 · 978 plays
When the Chiefs have the ball
Patrick Mahomesagainst
the 49ers
projected starter · chart of Wed, Sep 9, 2026
Staying on schedule
KC+52Share of first and second downs that gained enough to keep the offence ahead of the chains. Third down is downstream of this, which is why a team can convert well and still stall: it is the unit that never faces third-and-nine that wins the afternoon. This has the biggest weekly sample of the five, so its week-to-week reading is the one to trust most.
Chiefs offence
44.2%
16 of 32 · 797 early downs
49ers defence
49.9%
32 of 32 · 802 early downs
Week to week Chiefs's offence held its middle half of weeks between 40.5% and 46.0% over 17 weeks — 0.9 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself. 49ers's defence held its own between 46.9% and 52.6% — 0.8 times the league's whole season spread, tighter than the league itself — a habit rather than an average of different afternoons.
Expected points a play
KC+42Chiefs offence
+0.035
11 of 32 · 1,048 plays
49ers defence
+0.070
24 of 32 · 1,019 plays
Sacks on the dropback
KC+39Chiefs offence
6.8%
20 of 32 · 689 dropbacks
49ers defence
3.2%
32 of 32 · 633 dropbacks
Explosive plays, 20 yards or more
SF+23Chiefs offence
5.2%
20 of 32 · 1,048 plays
49ers defence
5.4%
13 of 32 · 1,019 plays
Third downs converted
SF+10Chiefs offence
38.0%
23 of 32 · 216 third downs
49ers defence
41.3%
20 of 32 · 189 third downs
Note
the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Two identities, on the league scale
Last season, labelled as last season
There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.
Pass rate over expected
The Over Expected Room →How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
49ers
-0.9
10 of 32 · 1,060 plays
Chiefs
+3.9
2 of 32 · 1,045 plays
Fourth downs, went for it
The Fourth Down Room →Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
49ers
22.7%
21 of 32 · 97 fourth downs
Chiefs
26.0%
10 of 32 · 123 fourth downs
Blitz sent on defence
The Tendency Room →Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
49ers
23.1%
29 of 32 · 633 charted dropbacks
Chiefs
38.9%
2 of 32 · 583 charted dropbacks
Drives that scored
The Drive Room →Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
49ers
47.6%
3 of 32 · 170 possessions
Chiefs
42.0%
15 of 32 · 169 possessions
Drives allowed to score
The Drive Room →Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
49ers
38.6%
13 of 32 · 166 possessions defended
Chiefs
37.7%
12 of 32 · 167 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Who is expected on the field
49ers
as of Wed, Sep 9, 2026Offence
- FBKyle Juszczyk
- RBChristian McCaffrey
- TEGeorge Kittle
- QBBrock Purdy
- RTColton McKivitz
- WRMike Evans
- LTTrent Williams
- LGConnor Colby
- CJake Brendel
- RGDominick Puni
Defence
- RCBDeommodore Lenoir
- NBUpton Stout
- LDEKeion White
- LDTOsa Odighizuwa
- RDTGracen Halton
- RDENick Bosa
- WLBDre Greenlaw
- MLBFred Warner
- SLBLuke Gifford
- LCBRenardo Green
- SSMalik Mustapha
- FSJi'Ayir Brown
Special teams
- LSJon Weeks
- KRDeebo Samuel
- PRJacob Cowing
- HCorliss Waitman
- PKEddy Pineiro
Chiefs
as of Wed, Sep 9, 2026Offence
- RBKenneth Walker III
- TETravis Kelce
- QBPatrick Mahomes
- RTKahlil Benson
- WRRashee Rice
- LTJosh Simmons
- LGKingsley Suamataia
- CCreed Humphrey
- RGTrey Smith
Defence
- FSAlohi Gilman
- RCBMansoor Delane
- NBJadon Canady
- LDEGeorge Karlaftis
- LDTChris Jones
- RDTKhyiris Tonga
- RDEFelix Anudike-Uzomah
- WLBDrue Tranquill
- MLBNick Bolton
- SLBJeffrey Bassa
- LCBL'Jarius Sneed
- SSChamarri Conner
Special teams
- LSJames Winchester
- KRNikko Remigio
- HMatt Araiza
- PKHarrison Butker
Note
2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
The usage each side was carrying
49ers
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBMac Jones | 8 | 99.8% | 0.0% | 13.8% | 3 | 16.3 |
| QBBrock Purdy | 9 | 97.8% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 7 | 19.7 |
| RBChristian McCaffrey | 17 | 83.1% | 23.4% | 65.7% | 100 | 24.5 |
| WRJauan Jennings | 15 | 82.1% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 22 | 11.6 |
| TEGeorge Kittle | 11 | 81.2% | 21.5% | 0.2% | 14 | 14.7 |
| WRRicky Pearsall | 9 | 78.1% | 18.0% | 0.7% | 4 | 9.8 |
| TEJake Tonges | 8 | 63.0% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 6 | 10.8 |
| WRKendrick Bourne | 14 | 62.4% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 2 | 6.6 |
Chiefs
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBPatrick Mahomes | 14 | 97.4% | 0.2% | 17.6% | 15 | 20.4 |
| TETravis Kelce | 17 | 81.9% | 20.0% | 0.1% | 14 | 11.4 |
| WRXavier Worthy | 13 | 75.6% | 17.1% | 3.3% | 6 | 8.5 |
| WRRashee Rice | 8 | 74.9% | 29.0% | 2.6% | 22 | 18.8 |
| WRJuJu Smith-Schuster | 17 | 57.2% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 9 | 4.3 |
| WRMarquise Brown | 16 | 53.5% | 14.2% | 0.0% | 10 | 8.6 |
| TENoah Gray | 14 | 52.9% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 3 | 2.8 |
| RBIsiah Pacheco | 13 | 51.7% | 6.8% | 36.3% | 24 | 6.7 |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
The last 6 meetings
- Sun, Oct 20, 2024Week 7Chiefs 28 at 49ers 18KC by 10
- Sun, Feb 11, 2024Super Bowl49ers 22 at Chiefs 25KC by 3
- Sun, Oct 23, 2022Week 7Chiefs 44 at 49ers 23KC by 21
- Sun, Feb 2, 2020Super Bowl49ers 20 at Chiefs 31KC by 11
- Sun, Sep 23, 2018Week 349ers 27 at Chiefs 38KC by 11
- Sun, Oct 5, 2014Week 5Chiefs 17 at 49ers 22SF by 5
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Sun, Dec 27, 2026.
Take it with you
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_16_SF_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Not observed yet — the reading is taken at kickoff.
- Referee
- Crew not assigned yet.
- Rest
- 49ers 10 days · Chiefs 6 days
- Coaches
- Kyle Shanahan vs Andy Reid