Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals — 2026 Week 10 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

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Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals — 2026 Week 10 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

When the Rams have the ball

Matthew Staffordagainstthe Cardinals

projected starter · chart of Tue, Sep 8, 2026

Staying on schedule

LA+94

Share of first and second downs that gained enough to keep the offence ahead of the chains. Third down is downstream of this, which is why a team can convert well and still stall: it is the unit that never faces third-and-nine that wins the afternoon. This has the biggest weekly sample of the five, so its week-to-week reading is the one to trust most.

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Rams offence

53.1%

1 of 32 · 838 early downs

Cardinals defence

49.0%

30 of 32 · 824 early downs

Week to week Rams's offence held its middle half of weeks between 46.8% and 59.1% over 17 weeks — 2.0 times the league's whole season spread — the season figure is a mean of afternoons that did not resemble each other. Cardinals's defence held its own between 45.5% and 53.8% — 1.1 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself.

Sacks on the dropback

LA+84

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Rams offence

3.7%

2 of 32 · 624 dropbacks

Cardinals defence

4.8%

28 of 32 · 621 dropbacks

Expected points a play

LA+81

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Rams offence

+0.145

2 of 32 · 1,056 plays

Cardinals defence

+0.088

27 of 32 · 1,053 plays

Explosive plays, 20 yards or more

LA+65

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Rams offence

8.0%

2 of 32 · 1,056 plays

Cardinals defence

6.4%

22 of 32 · 1,053 plays

Third downs converted

LA+42

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Rams offence

40.4%

16 of 32 · 188 third downs

Cardinals defence

44.8%

29 of 32 · 201 third downs

When the Cardinals have the ball

Jacoby Brissettagainstthe Rams

projected starter · chart of Tue, Sep 8, 2026

Sacks on the dropback

LA+52

The only line on this board whose two sides are different verbs: the offence's number is sacks taken and it wants it low, the defence's is sacks made and it wants it high. The denominator is dropbacks, not pass attempts, because a sack is a failed dropback and dividing by completed attempts would flatter the worst protections in football.

the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs

Two identities, on the league scale

Last season, labelled as last season

There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.

Pass rate over expected

The Over Expected Room →

How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.

Rams

+3.0

3 of 32 · 1,056 plays

most run-heavymost pass-heavy

league mean -2.3 · 32 ranked

Cardinals

+4.0

1 of 32 · 1,070 plays

Fourth downs, went for it

The Fourth Down Room →

Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.

Rams

28.6%

6 of 32 · 105 fourth downs

most conservativemost aggressive

league mean 23.3% · 32 ranked

Blitz sent on defence

The Tendency Room →

Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.

Rams

24.8%

24 of 32 · 662 charted dropbacks

least blitz sentmost blitz sent

league mean 29.4% · 32 ranked

Drives that scored

The Drive Room →

Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.

Rams

47.0%

4 of 32 · 181 possessions

fewest drives scoredmost drives scored

league mean 39.6% · 32 ranked

Cardinals

36.8%

Drives allowed to score

The Drive Room →

Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.

Rams

34.7%

7 of 32 · 176 possessions defended

2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18

The usage each side was carrying

Rams

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBMatthew Stafford	17	98.5%	0.0%	6.2%	7	20.6
WRDavante Adams	14	71.4%	25.1%	0.0%	32	15.9
RBKyren Williams	17	68.3%	8.1%	57.3%	63	15.5
WRPuka Nacua	16	68.3%	30.1%	2.2%	18	23.4
TEColby Parkinson	14	62.4%	11.7%	0.0%	22	9.3
TETyler Higbee	10	55.5%	11.0%	0.0%	8	7.1
TEDavis Allen	15	51.7%	6.3%	0.0%	7	4.2
WRJordan Whittington	13	48.8%	5.6%	0.8%	2	2.8

Cardinals

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBJacoby Brissett	12	99.5%	0.0%	15.1%	5	18.9
QBKyler Murray	5	98.8%	0.0%	24.5%	4	15.6
TETrey McBride

Note

Shares are the mean of a player's weekly share, over the games he cleared eight snaps in — not a season total divided by a season, which would let one enormous week stand in for a role. Weeks 19 through 22 are excluded by hand: the usage table spells every row's season type REG, playoffs included, so the week bound is what keeps the postseason out.