2026 Week 17 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Scheduled
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — 2026 Week 17. Kickoff Sun, Jan 3, 2027.
No spread, no total and no moneyline are on the schedule row for this game yet. Lines are typically posted a few weeks out and the row fills when they are — nothing is estimated here in the meantime.
The kickoff ledger
Both clubs over the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season
Falcons leads the widest measured gap here: drives allowed to score, 45.7% against 36.2%, a 9.5-point difference.
Pass rate over expected: Saints ran 1.8 points more than the script asked; Falcons ran 7.8 points more than the script asked.
The market read
No line has been posted
The schedule row for this game carries no spread, no total and no moneyline yet. Lines for a regular-season game are typically posted a few weeks out and the row fills when they are. Nothing is estimated here in the meantime — a made-up number on a preview is the one thing a preview must never do.
the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season · offense against defense, ranked in both directions
Where these two disagree
The widest disagreement on this board is hitting the chunk play, with the Falcons holding the ball. The Falcons offence ranked 4 of 30 among offenses at breaking off twenty yards or more; the Saints defence ranked 24 of 30 among defenses at keeping the ball in front of it. That is 69 percentile points, a mismatch, and it runs the Falcons’ way.
When the Saints have the ball
Tyler Shoughagainst
the Falcons
projected starter · chart of Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Staying on schedule
ATL+68Share of first and second downs that gained enough to keep the offense ahead of the chains. Third down is downstream of this, which is why a team can convert well and still stall: it is the unit that never faces third-and-nine that wins the afternoon. This has the biggest weekly sample of the five, so its week-to-week reading is the one to trust most.
Saints offense
38.8%
26 of 32 · 299 early downs
Falcons defense
39.5%
5 of 32 · 296 early downs
Week to week Saints's offense held its middle half of weeks between 33.3% and 39.3% over 6 weeks — 0.5 times the league's whole season spread, tighter than the league itself — a habit rather than an average of different afternoons. Falcons's defense held its own between 36.6% and 43.9% — 0.8 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself.
Explosive plays, 20 yards or more
ATL+48Saints offense
4.5%
25 of 30 · 401 plays
Falcons defense
5.3%
11 of 30 · 396 plays
Third downs converted
NO+35Saints offense
42.5%
12 of 30 · 87 third downs
Falcons defense
43.7%
23 of 31 · 87 third downs
Sacks on the dropback
NO+26Saints offense
5.1%
12 of 32 · 256 dropbacks
Falcons defense
5.6%
20 of 32 · 267 dropbacks
Expected points a play
ATL+17Saints offense
−0.050
20 of 30 · 401 plays
Falcons defense
−0.022
15 of 30 · 396 plays
When the Falcons have the ball
Michael Penix Jr.against
the Saints
projected starter · chart of Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Explosive plays, 20 yards or more
ATL+69Share of plays from scrimmage that gained twenty yards or more. The chunk play is how a drive happens without a drive happening, and it is the one dimension where a single snap can settle an afternoon.
Falcons offense
7.2%
4 of 30 · 359 plays
Saints defense
6.6%
24 of 30 · 378 plays
Week to week Falcons's offense held its middle half of weeks between 7.2% and 9.6% over 6 weeks — 0.7 times the league's whole season spread, tighter than the league itself — a habit rather than an average of different afternoons. Saints's defense held its own between 4.7% and 9.7% — 1.4 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself.
Staying on schedule
ATL+61Falcons offense
45.0%
13 of 32 · 278 early downs
Saints defense
50.0%
32 of 32 · 302 early downs
Sacks on the dropback
NO+35Falcons offense
8.3%
26 of 32 · 193 dropbacks
Saints defense
6.6%
15 of 32 · 227 dropbacks
Third downs converted
ATL+35Falcons offense
38.9%
18 of 30 · 72 third downs
Saints defense
47.1%
29 of 31 · 70 third downs
Expected points a play
ATL+10Falcons offense
−0.057
21 of 30 · 359 plays
Saints defense
+0.067
24 of 30 · 378 plays
Note
the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Two identities, on the league scale
This season
Every rate below is drawn from the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season, and it moves as each game's play-by-play lands.
Pass rate over expected
The Over Expected Room →How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
Saints
-1.8
16 of 32 · 399 plays
Falcons
-7.8
30 of 32 · 356 plays
Fourth downs, went for it
The Fourth Down Room →Share of fourth downs on which the offense ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
Saints
28.3%
4 of 32 · 46 fourth downs
Falcons
15.4%
20 of 32 · 39 fourth downs
Blitz sent on defense
The Tendency Room →Share of charted dropbacks this defense sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
Saints
33.9%
11 of 32 · 227 charted dropbacks
Falcons
26.2%
25 of 32 · 267 charted dropbacks
Drives that scored
The Drive Room →Share of this offense's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
Saints
36.8%
19 of 32 · 68 possessions
Falcons
35.3%
23 of 32 · 68 possessions
Drives allowed to score
The Drive Room →Share of opponent possessions this defense let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defense in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
Saints
45.7%
27 of 32 · 70 possessions defended
Falcons
36.2%
9 of 32 · 69 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Who is expected on the field
Saints
as of Sun, Oct 25, 2026Offense
- RBAlvin Kamara
- TEJuwan Johnson
- QBTyler Shough
- RTTaliese Fuaga
- WRChris Olave
- LTAsim Richards
- LGDavid Edwards
- CErik McCoy
- RGCesar Ruiz
Defense
- FSJulian Blackmon
- RCBQuincy Riley
- NBJonas Sanker
- LDECameron Jordan
- NTNathan Shepherd
- RDEVernon Broughton
- WLBCarl Granderson
- LILBKaden Elliss
- RILBPete Werner
- SLBChase Young
- LCBKool-Aid McKinstry
- SSJustin Reid
Special teams
- LSZach Wood
- KRBarion Brown
- HRyan Wright
- PKDaniel Carlson
Falcons
as of Sun, Oct 25, 2026Offense
- RBBijan Robinson
- TEKyle Pitts Sr.
- QBMichael Penix Jr.
- RTJawaan Taylor
- RGChris Lindstrom
- WRDrake London
- LTJake Matthews
- LGMatthew Bergeron
- CRyan Neuzil
Defense
- FSXavier Watts
- RCBMike Hughes
- NBSydney Brown
- LDEMaason Smith
- NTGervon Dexter Sr.
- RDEBrandon Dorlus
- WLBCameron Thomas
- LILBKendal Daniels
- RILBDivine Deablo
- SLBSamson Ebukam
- LCBA.J. Terrell Jr.
- SSJessie Bates III
Special teams
- LSLiam McCullough
- KRBrian Robinson Jr.
- PRZachariah Branch
- HJake Bailey
- PKNick Folk
Note
2026 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
The usage each side was carrying
Saints
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBTyler Shough | 6 | 99.5% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 7 | 18.7 |
| WRDevaughn Vele | 6 | 92.0% | 19.1% | 0.0% | 6 | 11.6 |
| WRChris Olave | 6 | 81.5% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 6 | 18.8 |
| TEJuwan Johnson | 6 | 66.5% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 7 | 11.0 |
| WRBryce Lance | 6 | 66.2% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 2 | 3.3 |
| TENoah Fant | 5 | 53.4% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 3 | 6.9 |
| TEOscar Delp | 4 | 31.5% | 2.3% | 0.0% | — | 1.2 |
| RBAlvin Kamara | 5 | 30.4% | 11.6% | 27.1% | 6 | 10.5 |
Falcons
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBMichael Penix Jr. | 4 | 98.8% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 1 | 16.1 |
| WRDrake London | 6 | 90.0% | 28.7% | 1.1% | 2 | 14.7 |
| RBBijan Robinson | 6 | 69.8% | 16.9% | 62.7% | 22 | 21.4 |
| WRJahan Dotson | 6 | 69.7% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 4 | 7.8 |
| TEKyle Pitts | 6 | 59.3% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 5 | 8.3 |
| WROlamide Zaccheaus | 6 | 38.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 1 | 0.9 |
| RBBrian Robinson | 6 | 30.3% | 3.8% | 29.9% | 8 | 8.8 |
| WRChris Blair | 4 | 27.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% | — | 0.9 |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
The last 6 meetings
- Mon, Oct 5, 2026Week 4Falcons 45 at Saints 24ATL by 21
- Sun, Jan 4, 2026Week 18Saints 17 at Falcons 19ATL by 2
- Sun, Nov 23, 2025Week 12Falcons 24 at Saints 10ATL by 14
- Sun, Nov 10, 2024Week 10Falcons 17 at Saints 20NO by 3
- Sun, Sep 29, 2024Week 4Saints 24 at Falcons 26ATL by 2
- Sun, Jan 7, 2024Week 18Falcons 17 at Saints 48NO by 31
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Sun, Jan 3, 2027.
Take it with you
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_17_NO_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Roof / surface
- fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Not observed yet — the reading is taken at kickoff.
- Referee
- Crew not assigned yet.
- Rest
- Saints 7 days · Falcons 7 days
- Coaches
- Kellen Moore vs Raheem Morris
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.